The executive vice president of the company, Rob Farbman, addressed the discrepancy between Edison Research's exit poll and the results published by the Central Election Commission. He stated that the 13-point difference suggests vote manipulation.
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The American company that ordered the exit poll from the TV company Formula on the day of the parliamentary elections analyzed its results. Edison Research stated in a press release that the review was conducted in response to allegations that fraud was a key factor in determining the election results.
Edison Research has been conducting national exit polls in Georgia since 2012. According to the company, all previous exit polls accurately confirmed the official vote results, showing Georgian Dream as the winner. The average margin of error for the votes attributed to Georgian Dream in more than five exit polls conducted until 2024 is less than 2%. However, according to the official results of the 2024 parliamentary elections, the ruling party received approximately 54% of the vote, which is 13 percentage points higher than the estimate provided by the Edison Research exit poll on the evening of October 26.
"The 13-point difference between Edison's estimate and the official result of 54% for Georgian Dream cannot be explained by normal variation alone and suggests local-level manipulation of the vote. Edison's review found that 1 the deviation from statistically expected results was widespread but most pronounced at specific polling locations in rural areas. These locations are likely to have had the most significant vote manipulation at the polling location level," Rob Farbman said.
The company notes that in 2023-24, 12 nationally representative studies were conducted in Georgia. The surveys indicated that Georgian Dream was about 10 points behind the results of the 2020 parliamentary polls; however, Georgian Dream exceeded the 2020 figure by 6 points.
Another American company, Harris X, responded to the results published by the Central Election Commission of Georgia, which conducted an exit poll for the parliamentary elections on behalf of Mtavari Arkhi. The company stated that an analysis of the exit poll results from more than 12 000 Georgian voters, when compared to the official results published by the Central Election Commission, reveals a discrepancy of 8% of the total votes - equivalent to 172 523 votes nationwide - which cannot be explained by statistical deviation and suggests possible violations during voting.
The official results from the CEC align more closely with the exit poll published by the government channel Imedi, which reported that the ruling party received 56.1% of the votes.
