The damage and crash of an Azerbaijan Airlines passenger plane in Kazakhstan may have been caused by an error in Russian air defense. This version is being actively discussed in Russian media.
News
Trending stories
The plane crash near Aktau airport claimed the lives of 38 people, according to the latest reports. A total of 62 passengers and 5 crew members were on board, 37 of whom were Azerbaijani citizens.
As reported by the independent publication Meduza, on December 25, just hours after the Embraer 190 crash, the blogger Fighterbomber, who is associated with the Russian Aerospace Forces, shared a video from the crash site on his Telegram channel. The footage reportedly shows traces of damage on the aircraft wreckage resembling those caused by the fragments of an anti-aircraft missile. These marks - holes - were also noted by other Telegram channels, which suggested they resembled "traces of destructive elements" and evidence of "external impact."
Additionally, footage taken on board the aircraft during the flight has been circulated. The video reveals damage to the plane's wing, appearing as a hole. Furthermore, oxygen masks were already deployed in the cabin.
The BBC Russian Service writes that the visible damage in the published photos might have been caused by the detonation of a missile warhead.
“So far, this is the most logical explanation, but it has a significant drawback - it is not supported by other facts: there are no statements from agencies capable of monitoring airspace and tracking missile launches. Additionally, there are no comments from those who overheard the conversation between the crew and air traffic controllers,” the BBC notes.
Euronews, citing official sources involved in the crash investigation, reported that surviving passengers heard an explosion followed by a sound resembling shell fragments striking the plane's fuselage.
Military analyst Yan Matveev, in an interview with the publication Nastoyashee Vremya (Current Time TV), did not rule out the possibility that the plane was damaged by a small missile from the Russian anti-aircraft system Pantsir-S1:
“Typically, an anti-aircraft missile contains far more damaging elements. However, if it was a small anti-aircraft missile, such as one from the Pantsir-S1 system, and it detonated at a significant distance from the plane, only part of the debris might have reached it, resulting in this pattern of damage,” the analyst explained.
He stated that the theory suggesting the plane was damaged by a flock of birds “now seems completely improbable,” although the possibility of an oxygen tank explosion is still being discussed.
“Passengers also reported hearing one or two explosions outside the plane. This could also indicate the use of an anti-aircraft missile,” Matveyev added.
The Azerbaijan Airlines plane was flying from Baku to Grozny. According to the Chechen airport authorities, the plane was diverted to Makhachkala due to fog and then continued on to Aktau.
According to Rosaviatsia, the plane's commander decided to change course and head to an alternative airfield - Aktau - due to the “emergency situation” on board caused by a bird strike.
The actual reason for the course change may have been an attack by Ukrainian drones.
“Russia should have closed the airspace over Grozny, but it did not. The plane was damaged by the Russians and was sent to Kazakhstan instead of being urgently landed in Grozny to rescue the people,” said Andriy Kovalenko, head of the Center for Combating Disinformation at Ukraine’s National Security Council.
Azerbaijan Airlines' press service informed the Russian state news agency TASS that the crashed plane was manufactured in 2013 and underwent its most recent full technical inspection in October 2024.
A day of mourning was declared in Azerbaijan on December 26 in memory of those who died in the crash.
