“Catastrophic geological and hydrometeorological events in the Bubistskali River valley on August 3, 2023, were caused by the intense melting of the glacier, the collapse of the rock avalanches in the headwaters of the glacier, atmospheric precipitation, landslide-erosive processes, and the passage of glacial runoff, which are related solely to natural factors,” notes the preliminary report of the National Environmental Agency published a few minutes ago.
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According to the document, a rocky mass to the west of the Buba glacier broke off and collided with the glacier, causing a certain part of it to collapse, which may have caused the overflow of water trapped under the glacier, after which the resulting torrent began to flow in the valley bed at high speed.
“The said process was facilitated by the recently increased ambient air temperature, the intense melting of glaciers caused by climate change, and the accompanying atmospheric precipitation. The rocky material and part of the glacial mass that came into motion transformed into a glacial mudflow in the upper part of the valley. The high-speed current washed away the bottom of the slopes on both sides of the flow and caused the formation and activation of the so-called coastal landslide bodies. It is worth noting that new landslide-erosion centers of different scales were formed in all tributaries of the Bubistskali River. Thus, the solid mass accumulated in the upper part of the valley merged with landslide masses from the peripheries of the Bubistskali river bed, as well as decomposed material carried from the tributaries.
It is worth noting that based on the analysis of the data of the hydrological station (automatic water consumption measuring sensor) on the Chanchakhi River, prolonged stagnation of water did not occur either before or in the course of the event.
A powerful mud-rock mudflow moved downstream from the bed and at about 15:15 spread over about 26 hectares in the area of Shovi (the so-called “cottage district”), where it swallowed the buildings and houses and caused human casualties.
Considering the composition of the mudflow current, the slope of the valley (potential energy), morphological conditions, and the distance, the landslide flow should have reached the cottages in 8-10 minutes from its conception-activation.
It is practically impossible to predict the exact time of occurrence of these types of events all over the world;
Taking into account the hydromorphological parameters of the river valley, it is not appropriate to take any kind of capital protection measures in the area of the formation of mudslides and the transit zone in the Bubistskali valley”, - is noted in the report.
There are several small and large glaciers in Bubistskali Valley. The largest glaciers in this basin are Tbilisa and Buba.
According to the report, “Bubistskali River valley is characterized by challenging terrain, where large volumes of physical and chemical drainage material. Lately, in the face of climate change, pulsating processes of glaciers are activated all around the world, and Georgia is no exception.
The complex geological structure of the valley, seismic-tectonic conditions, high energy potential of the terrain (morphological conditions), and climate change create a favorable environment for the conception and activation of natural processes in the valley. However, it should be emphasized that
In the last 100 years, there has not been a significant passage of mudflows before August 3, 2023”.
On August 3, on the territory of Shovi resort in Racha, a glacial landslide almost completely destroyed the resort, 18 bodies have been found, as many are missing.
